me, myself & andrei

14 Nov 2007
I Foresee..

Question: How come the Romanian President, Traian Băsescu, is so sure that at least one of the possible two referendums regarding the uninominal electoral system will be validated?

Context: On November 25th, 2007, Romanians will not only vote for the first delegates to the European Parliament, but will also have a say whether they would like a transitional uninominal electoral system (50% uninominal, 50% list-based and redistributable) or a pure one (all the delegates, in order of the gathered votes, will be elected among the available places at Senate and at the Deputy Chamber). The first option is already a written law (the Government took responsibility for it), and awaits for the President to promulgate it. The deadline for that to happen is November 26th. The later option is the President’s and the majority’s choice. Even so, it is said that not many people will come to vote, and the referendum needs 50%+1 of the available electors to come to vote, or else it is invalidated.

What if: the President has affirmed strongly that if the referendum is invalidated, and if the after-reports that follow it conclude that the measures taken, or the lack of them, will have made the Romanians not to show up for voting, he will re-engage in a second referendum on the same topic.

Answer: it is true that the public surveys show that the referendum has high chances to be invalidated due to low presence. Today the President stated that there will be a surprise coming up this Saturday. He will link the referendum to a future step that he will take in case of failure - resignation. The previous referendum, when the Parliament asked for his impeachment, showed a figure of 44.45% as turnout, with almost 75% against the impeachment.

PS: let’s see how this turns out